Posted by on Oct 4th, 2010 in Uncategorized | 0 comments
While home sales are way down from the past five years, they really may not be that far from where they would be if there never was a housing boom. If there weren’t hundreds of unqualified buyers and investors buying homes they shouldn’t have bought, where would home sales be now?
This graph shows us home sales in Cache County since 1997. The Logan Real Estate
boom really started in about 2002. Annual home sales in 2006 were more than double what they were in 1999. And while Cache County is growing, it certainly didn’t double over the course of 7 years. Over the past decade growth in Cache County has averaged less than 3% per year. If home sales increased at a gradual, 3% level each year from 2001’s home sales levels, we would have had about 913 home sales this year. About 50 more sales than we will actually have based on my projections.
Now the question is, what does this mean for the future? Because home sales were so much higher than normal levels during the boom, will they be less than “normal levels” during the recovery?
They could be less. There are now a lot of potential buyers less likely to want to buy because of what they saw happen to peers who lost equity. There are also good numbers of people who bought at the peak of the housing market, and have faced short sale
. These people will not be able to buy for years.
via Logan Utah Real Estate Market Conditions: Where would home sales be, if we never had a housing boom?.